MOORLACH CAMPAIGN UPDATE — Reasons to Vote Tomorrow — March 16, 2015

If I haven’t given you enough reasons to vote for me tomorrow, the OC Register provides several more in the piece below. Note — I am honored to have received the OC Register‘s endorsement in this race (see MOORLACH CAMPAIGN UPDATE — OC Register Endorsement — February 15, 2015).

If I obtain enough votes to achieve a majority of 50 percent, plus one, then the taxpayers will not have to underwrite the general election scheduled for May 19. The taxpayers would also not have to underwrite the special primary and/or general election(s) needed to replace my opponent.

Here’s another way to look at it. For those of you in the District that are annoyed by the robo-calls (even though they are a customary tool in campaigns), you could stop them tomorrow by voting for me.

If you’re a registered voter in the 37th Senate District, and you have not voted already with an absentee ballot, please go to the polls tomorrow and vote.

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Wave of fresh legislators in Orange County likely to subside

Now it will be several years before most incumbents will be termed out.

BY MARTIN WISCKOL / STAFF COLUMNIST

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Orange County’s big turnover of state legislators last year could continue well into this summer, depending on the outcome of the St. Patrick’s Day special election for state Senate District 37.

But it could be at least 2024 before the county sees much change again.

With the November election, incumbents vacated all but three of the county’s 12 state legislative seats. That could shrink to two if Assemblyman Don Wagner, R-Irvine, prevails over former Supervisor John Moorlach in Tuesday’s Senate race and leaves his current post.

Term limits are a key reason for the recent volatility. But term limits will force only one or two of the current incumbents out in the next four election cycles, depending on the fate of Wagner. Wagner is termed out of the Assembly in 2016.

Orange County is hardly alone in this phenomenon.

Statewide, 20 of 120 legislators are termed out in 2016, according to Paul Mitchell at Political Data Inc. That drops to six in 2018, 10 in 2020 and eight in 2022. The Assembly could prove particularly stable during that period, as none of its 80 members are termed out in 2018, 2020 or 2022.

Given the insurmountable advantage incumbents often have, the campaign business could suffer a blow.

“Your political consultant may need a hug after seeing this chart,” Mitchell quipped in his tweet of a graphic detailing the statistics.

The dip in term-limited legislators stems in part from the 2012 passage of Proposition 28, which allows lawmakers to serve 12 years total in either chamber. Previously, officials could serve a maximum of six years in the Assembly and eight years in the Senate.

As for the county’s legislative elections extending into the summer, here’s one way that could happen:

Nobody receives more than 50 percent in the Moorlach-Wagner contest, provided two long-shot candidates draw enough votes from the two top contenders. That would mean a May 19 runoff. If Wagner wins that, a special election for his Assembly seat would probably be held in early July. And if nobody wins a majority in that race, we’re probably looking at a September runoff.

Contact the writer: mwisckol

This e-mail was sent by the Moorlach for Senate campaign — www.MoorlachforSenate.com

Those willing to assist financially can go to www.MoorlachforSenate.com, call Phyllis Schneider at 714-368-0260, or mail a check made out to Moorlach for Senate 2015, and mail it to 360 E. 1st Street, #736, Tustin, CA, 92780.

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